Greenwich CT, Residential Real Estate Blog and Analysis: September 6th

Greenwich, CT Residential Real Estate Blog and Analysis:  September 6th A weekly analysis brought to you by Greenwich Real Estate Guy. www.greenwichrealestateguy.com

The above property is located at 20 West End Avenue in Old Greenwich.  If you do not usually open the link of the featured property, I suggest you do on this house.  It was refreshing to see the unique style of this home.  It is listed as a Shore Colonial but I do not think it does it justice.  Walking up it reminded me of an old plantation home.  However, it was just built and every amenity was looked after.  The back patio makes you feel like you are at a cabana of a luxury resort complete with outdoor shower, television, and bbq.  I could imagine enjoying it all summer long, as well as sitting out under the covered cabana watching the first snow fall of the season.  Inside the home are five bedrooms with five and two one half baths.  Every room has a deck.  The kitchen is second to none equipped with top of the line appliances and topped off with a television that rises up out of the island so you can be kept abreast of the news while cooking and entertaining.  The best part is the location.  The house is half of a block from downtown Old Greenwich.  The price is $4.189M.  I wanted to take the opportunity to thank Olivia Just.  She is a reporter from Greenwich Time that when writing an article about a new real estate company moving into Greenwich came across the blog and called for my opinion on the Greenwich Real Estate Market.  You can find the article here; Westchester's Houlihan Lawrence comes to Greenwich. This week we had 48 new properties and 14 sold properties bringing the total inventory up to 627.  The fall market has officially begun.  The inventory grew for the first time in a while.  Also, we have forty open houses this Sunday.  I have updated the links.  I am keeping the analysis up from last week as it was a holiday weekend with a lot of individuals on vacation: We have discussed that we had an incredible July.  It looks like August was just as good, if not better.  In August of 2012, there were 77 properties sold, this month we have had 94 properties sell.  That is a 22% growth.  If we take a three month spectrum, we had 252 properties sell in June through August of 2012.  This year we had 315 properties sell, which is a 25% growth.  In my June 7thblog (can be found at www.greenwichrealestateguy.com/blog) we had 716 total properties for sale.  Today we have 611. That is a 15% decrease of inventory in just the past two months.   So, as one can see the overall market is drastically improving.  The only concern then would be the higher priced market.  When looking at the 94 properties that sold in August we only had four that sold for over $4M.  Year to date, we have only had one property sell for over $10M.  However, we currently have seven properties in Executed Contract with Listing Prices over $10M.  Again, showing that the ultimate luxury market is bouncing back as well. A friend of mine has started a Greenwich Parent List.  Coming from Park Slope we belonged to a Parents of Twins Group in Brooklyn and a Park Slope parents group.  I found it very informational, a great place to ask advice or find interesting items.  Moving to Greenwich, I wished there was such a site here, and now there is.  Click on the link to check out; Greenwich Parent List. Below are the Sold Price to List Price percentage for each of the four towns as well as some neighborhood data: Sold Price vs. List Price   Neighborhood Data      I would like to thank Mark Pruner for mentioning me in the Greenwich Patch.  Mark also does his own synopsis of the Greenwich Market at www.greenwichstreets.com.  Please let me know if you would like me to provide customized information or statistics for you based on your criteria. **The information on the featured property and all statistical information is from the Greenwich MLS. **All opinions garnered from the statistics are my own

Properties Sold   This chart says it all in my opinion.  Look at the last five months and you can see the amount of movement compared to other months over the past few years.  The big jump in June of 2011 was due to the changes in transfer taxes.  As well as the big jump in December of 2012 was due to the fiscal cliff.  If you take those two months out, you can see just how amazing of a run we have had over the past five months.  I personally do believe that the end of August is when there is a strain on inventory as a lot of people take their homes off the market while on vacation etc.  I believe we will see a lot of inventory come on the market in the next three weeks.  I am intrigued to see if we get up to that 716 mark we had in June. New Listings We only had 45 new properties in August.  With, selling 94 properties it was a much needed decline in inventory.  Also, worth noting that it was the lowest August in new inventory in the four years.     Year to Date Sold  We are not seeing a huge change in the percentages of the properties that have sold.  They are staying relatively consistent.  I do see the over $10M market moving off of the 0% over the next month or two.    Year to Date Available    In an effort to define the different markets as a good time to buy or sale I believe one needs to look at the months on average it would take to sell through the inventory we have.  I have broken this down by June of 2012 (which is the high in my opinion) to January of 2013 (the low in my opinion) then will add each month as we come to them.    Price Range 6/12/13 1/5/13 2/1/13 2/22/13 3/22/13 4/26/13 5/31/13 6/28/13 7/26/13 8/30/13 0-$500K 6.36 4.96 5.76 5.28 5.12 4.95 5.76 5.76 6.24 5.11 $500K-$1M 7.98 3.88 4.22 4.22 4.72 5.11 5.5 5.55 5.5 5.16 $1M-$1.5M 11.48 7.22 7.34 7.1 7.22 8.2 9.3 8.81 7.95 7.59 $1.5M-$2M 10.86 7 8.55 9.06 8.68 9.44 9.19 8.8 8.5 7.53 $2M-$3M 15.27 8.64 9.72 10.2 9.96 12.24 13.8 12.6 12.12 11.76 $3M-$4M 21.82 12.4 13.77 16.22 17.55 20.88 22.66 22 20.22 20.22 $4M-$5M 37.33 17.5 16.5 18.5 21.5 27.5 28 27.5 23.5 21.99 $5M-$7.5M 30.92 19.4 20.47 20.47 20.82 23.64 25.76 26.82 26.47 24 $7.5M-$10M 57 25.84 22.15 22.15 25.84 26.76 31.38 33.2 32.3 25.84 $10M+ 40.21 36 36.85 40.28 38.57 36 38.57 36 31.71 29.14 **to calculate months on average in this chart I used the full year of 2012 sold properties in each price range   The numbers we have tracked to decide the months on average have been based on last year's sold numbers.  Now that we have gone through eight months of the year,  about to hit the fall market I feel it is a good time to show the months on average based on year to date information.  This shows the discrepancy of the markets between the upper end and the lower end.  Obviously, the over $10M is skewed as only one property has closed year to date.  Hence, the 272 months on average it would take.   Next month it will come down dramatically.  I will continue to show both charts so you can see the trends compared to earlier months above when using last year's property sold numbers and then you can see the true pace of the market using year to date's numbers. Price Range 8/30/13 0-$500K 4.26 $500K-$1M 4.65 $1M-$1.5M 4.96 $1.5M-$2M 5.61 $2M-$3M 7.84 $3M-$4M 20.22 $4M-$5M 22 $5M-$7.5M 40.8 $7.5M-$10M 44.8 $10M+ 272   ** to calculate months on average in this chart I used year to date sold properties in each price range. Obviously the months on average were the lowest at the end of the year.  The uncertainty of the fiscal cliff, as well as the election (most properties that closed in December were negotiated before election was finalized), and uncertainty of taxes.  Not to mention if people are going to take their house off of the market they will tend to do it over the holidays.   Open Houses September 7th      Below are all of the Greenwich Open Houses for Sunday.  Thank you to Rob Pulitano for sending me the list of open houses so I can add the links, and Mark Pruner for publishing the list on Greenwich Patch.   Address Town List Price Time Broker 1535 E. Putnam Avenue Old Greenwich $244K 1-3 PM Raveis 1465 E Putnam #122 Old Greenwich $449.5K 2-4 PM Coldwell Bnkr 51 Forest Avenue #35 Old Greenwich $520K 1-3 PM Coldwell Bnkr 40 W Elm Street #5C Greenwich $529K 2-4 PM Raveis 115 Halstead Avenue #B Greenwich $649K 1-3 PM Raveis 25 Indian Harbor Drive #4 Greenwich $649.5K 1-3 PM Weichert 13 Fletcher Avenue Greenwich $665K 1-3 PM Weichert 18 Cat Rock Road Cos Cob $675K 1-3 PM Keller Williams 15 Nedley Lane Greenwich $699K 1-3 PM Andersen 53 William Street #A Greenwich $725K 1-4 PM Prudential 62 Valley Road Cos Cob $729K 2-4 PM Raveis 29 Riverside Lane Old Greenwich $829K 1-3 PM Higgins 28 Bonwit Road Riverside $899K 1-3 PM Coldwell Bnkr 11 Meyer Place Riverside $939K 12- 2 PM Coldwell Bnkr 83 Lancer Road Riverside $1.069M 2-4 PM Coldwell Bnkr 91 Bowman Dr North Greenwich $1.195M 1-4 PM Prudential 17 Davenport Avenue Greenwich $1.195M 2-4 PM Raveis 15 E Lyon Farm Drive #15 Greenwich $1.245M 1-4 PM Sotheby's 51 Circle Drive Greenwich $1.25M 1-4 PM Coldwell Bnkr 326 Cognewaugh Road Cos Cob $1.275M 1-3 PM Sotheby's 43 Long Meadow Rd Riverside $1.285M 2-4 PM Coldwell Bnkr 33 Maple Avenue Greenwich $1.375M 2-4 PM Grnwch Fine Props 28 Mianus View Cos Cob $1.549M 1-4 PM Weichert 52 Benjamin Street Old Greenwich $1.575M 1-4 PM Prudential 20 Lockwood Road Riverside $2.125M 1-4 PM Sotheby's 11 Angus Lane Greenwich $2.195M 2-4 PM Raveis 13 St. Claire Avenue Old Greenwich $2.375M 2-4 PM Sotheby's 15 Palmer Terrace Riverside $2.599M 1-3 PM Raveis 12 Shore Road Old Greenwich $2.575M 1-4 PM Grnwch Fine Props 208 Dolphin Cove Quay Stamford $2.825M 1-4 PM Prudential 15 Dearfield Lane Greenwich $3.15M 1-4 PM Prudential 240 Riverside Avenue Riverside $3.199M 1-3 PM Coldwell Bnkr 242 Dolphin Cove Quay Stamford $3.285M 1-4 PM Prudential 76 Cat Rock Road Cos Cob $3.295M 3-5 PM Coldwell Bnkr 241 Riverside Avenue Riverside $3.3M 1-4 PM Sotheby's 22 Tomac Avenue Old Greenwich $3.389M 1-4 PM Grnwch Custm 132 Cedar Cliff Road Riverside $3.995M 1-4 PM Sotheby's 20 West End Avenue Old Greenwich $4.189M 1-4 PM Higgins 19 Desiree Drive Greenwich $4.195M 2-4 PM Ogilvy 30 Oneida Drive Greenwich $4.55M 12- 2 PM Coldwell Bnkr Best,                                                                                                                                                         Jared Randall                                                 Join my Mailing List Prudential CT, Greenwich Office                 Search Properties www.greenwichrealestateguy.com             Forward to a Friend cell:  203-273-1034                                        View My Website email:  jaredrandall@prudentialct.com       Like me on Facebook            Mortgage Information The two individuals I feel most confident about when it comes to home mortgages are Jeff Ihrig of First Republic in the city and Iliad Estrada of Connecticut Home Mortgage. Jeff can be reached at 646-372-5181. Rates below courtesy of Iliad Estrada.  She can be reached at 203-637-6202. Product Interest Rates Annual Percentage Rate 15 YR Fixed Conforming 2.625% 2.863% 30 YR Fixed Conforming 3.625% 3.793% 30 Year Fixed Agency  Jumbo n/a n/a 30 YR  Fixed Jumbo 3.875% 3.999% 5/1 YR ARM Conforming 2.125% 2.789% 5/1 YR ARM Jumbo 2.125% 2.769% 10/1 YR ARM Jumbo 2.875% 2.995%