Greenwich CT, Residential Real Estate Blog and Analysis: August 30th

Greenwich, CT Residential Real Estate Blog and Analysis:  August 30th A weekly analysis brought to you by Greenwich Real Estate Guy. www.greenwichrealestateguy.com

The above colonial is located at 212 Taconic Road in Greenwich.  I was struck by the drive up to the house.  As you pull into the driveway you are met with a beautiful lawn and picturesque pond greeting the entrance to the beautiful home.  It sits on 4.39 acres.  The house has five bedrooms, with five full baths and two half baths.  I also enjoyed the amenities of the house.  The five bedrooms are en suite.  There are five fireplaces, a media/home theatre, as well as a great patio with grill.  I also like the idea of the 2nd home laundry room.  This house has been on the market some time.  However, we are seeing the Back Country and higher price ranges finally start to move.  The house was bought for $4.9M in 2008.  The house first came on the market for $5.495M in May of 2010.  It has been on and off the market since and is currently priced at $4.395M. We have discussed that we had an incredible July.  It looks like August was just as good, if not better.  In August of 2012, there were 77 properties sold, this month we have had 94 properties sell.  That is a 22% growth.  If we take a three month spectrum, we had 252 properties sell in June through August of 2012.  This year we had 315 properties sell, which is a 25% growth.  In my June 7th blog (can be found at www.greenwichrealestateguy.com/blog) we had 716 total properties for sale.  Today we have 611. That is a 15% decrease of inventory in just the past two months.   So, as one can see the overall market is drastically improving.  The only concern then would be the higher priced market.  When looking at the 94 properties that sold in August we only had four that sold for over $4M.  Year to date, we have only had one property sell for over $10M.  However, we currently have seven properties in Executed Contract with Listing Prices over $10M.  Again, showing that the ultimate luxury market is bouncing back as well. A friend of mine has started a Greenwich Parent List.  Coming from Park Slope we belonged to a Parents of Twins Group in Brooklyn and a Park Slope parents group.  I found it very informational, a great place to ask advice or find interesting items.  Moving to Greenwich, I wished there was such a site here, and now there is.  Click on the link to check out; Greenwich Parent List. Below are the Sold Price to List Price percentage for each of the four towns as well as some neighborhood data: Sold Price vs. List Price   Neighborhood Data      I would like to thank Mark Pruner for mentioning me in the Greenwich Patch.  Mark also does his own synopsis of the Greenwich Market at www.greenwichstreets.com.  Please let me know if you would like me to provide customized information or statistics for you based on your criteria. **The information on the featured property and all statistical information is from the Greenwich MLS. **All opinions garnered from the statistics are my own     Best,                                                                                                                                                         Jared Randall                                                Join my Mailing List Prudential CT, Greenwich Office                  Search Properties www.greenwichrealestateguy.com              Forward to a Friend cell:  203-273-1034                                       View My Website email:  jaredrandall@prudentialct.com        Like me on Facebook

Properties Sold   This chart says it all in my opinion.  Look at the last five months and you can see the amount of movement compared to other months over the past few years.  The big jump in June of 2011 was due to the changes in transfer taxes.  As well as the big jump in December of 2012 was due to the fiscal cliff.  If you take those two months out, you can see just how amazing of a run we have had over the past five months.  I personally do believe that the end of August is when there is a strain on inventory as a lot of people take their homes off the market while on vacation etc.  I believe we will see a lot of inventory come on the market in the next three weeks.  I am intrigued to see if we get up to that 716 mark we had in June. New Listings We only had 45 new properties in August.  With, selling 94 properties it was a much needed decline in inventory.  Also, worth noting that it was the lowest August in new inventory in the four years.     Year to Date Sold  We are not seeing a huge change in the percentages of the properties that have sold.  They are staying relatively consistent.  I do see the over $10M market moving off of the 0% over the next month or two.    Year to Date Available    In an effort to define the different markets as a good time to buy or sale I believe one needs to look at the months on average it would take to sell through the inventory we have.  I have broken this down by June of 2012 (which is the high in my opinion) to January of 2013 (the low in my opinion) then will add each month as we come to them.    Price Range 6/12/13 1/5/13 2/1/13 2/22/13 3/22/13 4/26/13 5/31/13 6/28/13 7/26/13 8/30/13 0-$500K 6.36 4.96 5.76 5.28 5.12 4.95 5.76 5.76 6.24 5.11 $500K-$1M 7.98 3.88 4.22 4.22 4.72 5.11 5.5 5.55 5.5 5.16 $1M-$1.5M 11.48 7.22 7.34 7.1 7.22 8.2 9.3 8.81 7.95 7.59 $1.5M-$2M 10.86 7 8.55 9.06 8.68 9.44 9.19 8.8 8.5 7.53 $2M-$3M 15.27 8.64 9.72 10.2 9.96 12.24 13.8 12.6 12.12 11.76 $3M-$4M 21.82 12.4 13.77 16.22 17.55 20.88 22.66 22 20.22 20.22 $4M-$5M 37.33 17.5 16.5 18.5 21.5 27.5 28 27.5 23.5 21.99 $5M-$7.5M 30.92 19.4 20.47 20.47 20.82 23.64 25.76 26.82 26.47 24 $7.5M-$10M 57 25.84 22.15 22.15 25.84 26.76 31.38 33.2 32.3 25.84 $10M+ 40.21 36 36.85 40.28 38.57 36 38.57 36 31.71 29.14 **to calculate months on average in this chart I used the full year of 2012 sold properties in each price range   The numbers we have tracked to decide the months on average have been based on last year's sold numbers.  Now that we have gone through eight months of the year,  about to hit the fall market I feel it is a good time to show the months on average based on year to date information.  This shows the discrepancy of the markets between the upper end and the lower end.  Obviously, the over $10M is skewed as only one property has closed year to date.  Hence, the 272 months on average it would take.   Next month it will come down dramatically.  I will continue to show both charts so you can see the trends compared to earlier months above when using last year's property sold numbers and then you can see the true pace of the market using year to date's numbers. Price Range 8/30/13 0-$500K 4.26 $500K-$1M 4.65 $1M-$1.5M 4.96 $1.5M-$2M 5.61 $2M-$3M 7.84 $3M-$4M 20.22 $4M-$5M 22 $5M-$7.5M 40.8 $7.5M-$10M 44.8 $10M+ 272   ** to calculate months on average in this chart I used year to date sold properties in each price range. Obviously the months on average were the lowest at the end of the year.  The uncertainty of the fiscal cliff, as well as the election (most properties that closed in December were negotiated before election was finalized), and uncertainty of taxes.  Not to mention if people are going to take their house off of the market they will tend to do it over the holidays.   Open Houses September 1st      Below are all of the Greenwich Open Houses for Sunday.  Thank you to Rob Pulitano for sending me the list of open houses so I can add the links, and Mark Pruner for publishing the list on Greenwich Patch.   Address Town List Price Time Broker 29 Riverside Lane Riverside $829K 1-3 PM Higgins Grp 15 Linwood Avenue Riverside $1.655M 2-4 PM Weichert 17 Lincoln Avenue Greenwich $2.9M 1-4 PM Prudential Mortgage Information The two individuals I feel most confident about when it comes to home mortgages are Jeff Ihrig of First Republic in the city and Iliad Estrada of Connecticut Home Mortgage. Jeff can be reached at 646-372-5181. Rates below courtesy of Iliad Estrada.  She can be reached at 203-637-6202. Product Interest Rates Annual Percentage Rate 15 YR Fixed Conforming 2.625% 2.863% 30 YR Fixed Conforming 3.625% 3.793% 30 Year Fixed Agency  Jumbo n/a n/a 30 YR  Fixed Jumbo 3.875% 3.999% 5/1 YR ARM Conforming 2.125% 2.789% 5/1 YR ARM Jumbo 2.125% 2.769% 10/1 YR ARM Jumbo 2.875% 2.995%