Greenwich CT, Residential Real Estate Analysis and Blog: January 6th

Greenwich, CT Residential Real Estate Analysis: January 4th A weekly analysis brought to you by Greenwich Real Estate Guy. www.greenwichrealestateguy.com

I apologize I have not sent the newsletter for the last few weeks.  My wife and I welcomed our third son on December 20th.  I felt it fitting to do a review of the properties I have featured this year to help show the state of the market.  I started featuring properties in July for the newsletter.  The above pictured house is the first house I featured, 2 Parsonage Road.  It sold on December 21st, and I had the pleasure of representing the buyers in the transaction.  In the area year to date properties have sold for an average of 94.57% of the last listed price.  My clients and I were able to get the above property for 80.32% of the listed price when we started negotiating. The list price at that time was $4.295M.   Date featured Address Price Status Last listed Price June 29th 2 Parsonage $4.295M Sold $3.45M July 6th 450 North Street $4.195M Executed Contract $3.875M July 13th 59 Club Road $3.895M Expired $3.295M July 20th 1 Finney Lane $1.795M Sold $1.665M July 27th 126 Parsonage $4.325M Active $3.925M August 3rd 16 Manor Road $1.795M Expired $1.795M August 10th 11 Butternut Hollow $2.295M Withdrawn $2.195M August 17th 21 Watchtower Lane $2.345M Withdrawn $2.345M August 24th 121 Clapboard Ridge $2.999.999M Expired $2.999.999M September 7th 81 Sherwood Place $1.425M Executed Contract $1.425M September 21st 15 East Point Lane $7.85M Active $7.45M September 28th 64 Hillcrest Park $3.495M Active $3.195M October 5th 20 Maplewood Drive $895K Active $895K October 12th 17 Welwyn Road $4.195M Sold $3.85M October 19th 21 Ridge Road $1.195M Contingent Contract $11.95M October 26th 180 North Street $3.899M Active $3.85M November 9th 44 Winthrop $4.195M Active $4.195M November 16th 82 Glenville Road $3.875M Expired $3.875M November 30th 50 Zaccheus Mead Lane $6.695M Active $6.695M December 7th 5 Bridle Path Lane $6.95M Executed Contract $6.295M     In the above chart the last listed price is the last listed price for any category other than sold.  If, the property was sold, the price is the sold price.  When you scroll down for the updated statistics you will see an incredible spike in sold properties in December.  As I have been mentioning for the last few months, I anticipated a huge spike with the uncertainty of the election, fiscal cliff, and tax changes.  However, we went from 40 sold properties in December of 2011 to 89 properties in December of 2012.  It will be interesting to see how January and February play out.  I have updated the mortgage rates as of December 14th below.   My personal opinion is that the best way to understand where the market is to analyze it from a price range standpoint.  Then, to be able to see the amount of inventory versus the amount of properties sold in each price range gives us the best sense of the market.  Scroll down to see these broken down as months on average it would take to sell through the current inventory.  You can compare the current weeks numbers against the numbers from previous newsletters at www.greenwichrealestateguy.com/blog. As always, if you have a house in mind you would like to see, please do not hesitate to call me.   I would like to thank Mark Pruner for mentioning me in the Greenwich Patch.  Mark also does his own synopsis of the Greenwich Market at www.greenwichstreets.com.  I have updated the mortgage information on the bottom of the newsletter as well. Please let me know if you would like me to provide customized information or statistics for you based on your criteria. **The information on the featured property and all statistical information is from the Greenwich MLS. **All opinions garnered from the statistics are my own

Properties Sold   As mentioned and seen above, there was tremendous activity in December.  We sold 89 this past month vs. 40 the year before.  When we compare that to the new listings we see that this will put pressure on the inventory, as we only had 30 new listings in the month of December.  This is the first time this year we have eaten into the inventory.  That coupled with the amount of houses that were withdrawn or expired, we see a dramatic affect on the months on average of the inventory. Feel free to see the difference by looking at older issues at www.greenwichrealestateguy.com/blog. New Listings    Year to Date Sold As the end of the year slows down we do not see a tremendous change in the percentages.  We saw a one percent growth in the $1M-$1.5M and one percent decline in $500K-$1M. Year to Date Available    With the flurry of sold properties to end the year and people taking their homes off the market at the end of the year, we see some fluctuation in this chart.  The $1M-$1.5M grew a percent, while the $2M-$3M dropped two percentage points.  The $7.5M-$10M and over $10M both grew a percentage as well.  In an effort to define the different markets as a good time to buy or sale I believe one needs to look at the months on average it would take to sell through the inventory we have.  Due to the reasons discussed above we have seen drops in most price categories.   In the $0-$500K range we have dropped to 4.96 months on average to sell through, the lowest in 2012.  $500K-$1M  we have 3.88 months, another year low.  In the $1M-$1.5M we have 7.22 a drop of three months from the last newsletter and year low. $1.5M-$2M we have 7 months, a drop of just under two months.  $2M-$3M we have 8.64 months, a drop of three and a half months.  $3M-$4M we have 12.4 months, a drop of five months. $4M-$5M we have 17.5 months, a drop of a month. $5M-$7.5M we have 19.4 months, a drop of four months. $7.5-$10M we have 25.84 a , a drop of seven months.  $10M and above we have 36 months. As you can see all price ranges saw big drops, except for the over $10M price range.  I am interested to see how these numbers hold up.  Undoubtedly they will grow as more properties come available, but I am curious to see if they grow to the points they were just a few weeks ago.  My personal opinion is that it will continue to be slow through the first half of the year, and the properties that are negotiated on in March and April will close in June and July and we will see things start to gain momentum.   Open Houses January 6th      Below are all of the Greenwich Open Houses for Sunday.  If you click on the link it will take you to the listing.    Address Town List Price Time Broker 1525 E. Putnam Avenue #409 Old Greenwich $258K 1-3 PM Keller Williams 4 Caroline Place Greenwich $599K 12-3 PM Raveis 230 Valley Road Cos Cob $650K 2-4 PM Raveis 98 Putnam Park #98 Greenwich $695K 1-3 PM Raveis 2 Gerry Street Greenwich $749K 2-4 PM Raveis    Mortgage Information The two individuals I feel most confident about when it comes to home mortgages are Jeff Ihrig of First Republic in the city and Iliad Estrada of Connecticut Home Mortgage. Jeff can be reached at 646-372-5181. Rates below courtesy of Iliad Estrada.  She can be reached at 203-637-6202.   CT Mortgage Rates Product Interest Rates Annual Percentage Rate 15 YR Fixed Conforming 2.375% 2.608% 30 YR Fixed Conforming 3.100% 3.235% 30 Year Fixed Agency  Jumbo n/a n/a 30 YR  Fixed Jumbo 3.500% 3.619% 5/1 YR ARM Conforming 2.100% 2.892% 5/1 YR ARM Jumbo 2.125% 2.880% 10/1 YR ARM Jumbo 2.875% 3.062% Updated: December 14th