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Dear Jared
The above pictured new construction is located at 320 Valley Road in Cos Cob. The house is situated at the top of a small hill and climbs up even farther giving you beautiful sky line views. It across the street from the Mianus Pond, with beautiful views from the three floors of the pond. There are ten foot ceilings given the home a very open feel as well making it feel larger than the advertised 3,346 s.f. It has three bedrooms, and three and two half baths sitting perched on .28 acres of land. With the size of the lot there is not a huge yard, but there are a couple areas of small lawn that would suffice in my opinion. I think it is a great entrance point into a new construction at $1.795M.
If you read this weekly, you might realize that I am more bearish than most realtors at this time. However, as I mentioned in last week's newsletter, December was the busiest December in over a decade. The uncertainty with the election, the fiscal cliff, and the overall market contributed to the drastic influx of sold properties. The aftermath of that activity is very low inventory in Greenwich. The statistics below address the average time it takes to sell through properties in various price ranges. Last week's available properties were the fewest of the whole year, at every price range. As a result, we are experiencing much shorter timelines. This chart shows the difference from end of June to last week's statistics. As you can see, on average the timing decreased by 40%.
| Price Range |
Months on Avg 06/12 |
Months on Avg 01/05/12 |
| 0-$500K |
6.36 |
4.96 |
| $500K-$1M |
7.98 |
3.88 |
| $1M-$1.5M |
11.48 |
7.22 |
| $1.5M-$2M |
10.86 |
7 |
| $2M-$3M |
15.27 |
8.64 |
| $3M-$4M |
21.82 |
12.4 |
| $4M-$5M |
37.33 |
17.5 |
| $5M-$7.5M |
30.92 |
19.4 |
| $7.5M-$10M |
57 |
25.84 |
| $10M+ |
40.21 |
36 |
Hence, I believe this is the perfect time to buy and/ or sell property in Greenwich.
While I still believe that we are not completely over the hump in Greenwich, especially in the higher price ranges, I do feel there is a temporary time frame where sellers can get a premium on their properties because the inventory is so low. I also believe come March we will see a huge influx of inventory, which will soften the market, and create opportunities to buy.
To illustrate why I believe the market is where it is, please read this article that was in the Wall Street Journal a couple of weeks ago titled Luxury Snaps Back. Please note that even though article is only a couple of weeks old, the data is six months old. It references Q2 2012 data for the charts. You can see in the article that Greenwich is pretty far behind the rest of the country. However, given our low inventory, I feel we will see a month or two of a pretty competitive market. I then think it will soften again, as we get an influx of inventory in March. And most likely, ticking back up to catch up with the rest of the country after the first six months of the year. Obviously, there's no guarantees, but these are my opinions based on the facts at hand. On the listing side, I feel now is the time to get the property listed so one can take advantage of the tight inventory and be ready for the busy season.
I will be hosting an open house at 90 Buckfield Lane on Sunday from 1-4 p.m. So please come by and say hi.
My personal opinion is that the best way to understand where the market is to analyze it from a price range standpoint. Then, to be able to see the amount of inventory versus the amount of properties sold in each price range gives us the best sense of the market. Scroll down to see these broken down as months on average it would take to sell through the current inventory. Due to the fact that most of my charts are based on month end and year to date data I have left the charts the same so you can view 2012 as a year for the first few weeks of this year before updating till 2013 to give us more time to get more transactions. You can compare the current weeks numbers against the numbers from previous newslettersat www.greenwichrealestateguy.com/blog.
As always, if you have a house in mind you would like to see, please do not hesitate to call me.
I would like to thank Mark Pruner for mentioning me in the Greenwich Patch. Mark also does his own synopsis of the Greenwich Market at www.greenwichstreets.com. I have updated the mortgage information on the bottom of the newsletter as well.
Please let me know if you would like me to provide customized information or statistics for you based on your criteria.
**The information on the featured property and all statistical information is from the Greenwich MLS.
**All opinions garnered from the statistics are my own
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Jared Randall
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