Greenwich CT, Residential Real Estate Blog and Analysis: January 3rd

Greenwich, CT Residential Real Estate Blog and Analysis:   January 3rd  2013 Year in Review A weekly analysis brought to you by Greenwich Real Estate Guy. www.greenwichrealestateguy.com

I decided to do a 2013 Year in Review as my first newsletter of 2014.  To that end the above pictured estate was the highest sold property through the Greenwich MLS in 2013.  555 Lake Avenue sold for $25M.  It boasts 8.23 acres of land.  The home has 8 bedrooms, 11 full baths, as well as 2 half baths.  The new owners will stay warm on days like this as there are eight fireplaces.  There are twenty five rooms, in the estate that was constructed and designed by award winning architect Dinyer Wadie and the twenty five room interior designed by Linda Ruderman. When we look at 2013 as a whole we can definitely see the market turn.  We sold 834 units, compared to 722 in 2012.  However, when we dig into the data we realize that it was the story of two different markets.  The under $3M market and the over $3M market.  Every price range under $3M grew.  In 2013 we sold 710 properties under $3M compared to 583 in 2012.  That is a 22% increase, which is incredible growth in one year.  However, over $3M we sold 124 units compared to 139 in 2012, which is an 11% decrease. Obviously, this is looking at 2013 as a whole.  It is important when looking at these numbers to compare with the current market.  I believe these numbers show that last year was the market regaining it's momentum.  In the beginning of the year it was anything under $1M was flying off the shelves, in the middle of the year it was anything under $2M, and by the end of the year, under $3M was heating up.  Hence, as we look at 2014, I believe we will see two things happen.  I believe the message will get out that the market has changed and we will see an onslaught of inventory in the spring.  It will be very interesting to see if that inventory moves quickly or not.  Secondly, I believe we will see the luxury market pick up steam.  If you look below at the Market Report pay close attention to the right side which shows the difference in the past two years.  For example the over $10M properties was down 43% last year.  However, our first property over $10M did not sell until late June, so in actuality we had eight properties sell in the last five and a half months.  Plus, there are three properties currently priced over $10M that are in contract or have executed contract.  Hence, you can see that even though 2013 as a whole was tough for that market, it is definitely a stronger market now than in the first six to nine months of 2013. There is a lack of inventory currently as properties come off of the market for the year end.  In my opinion that points to an onslaught of inventory in Spring.  If, you are looking to put your house on the market I would advise to put on before rather than later, as I feel there the philosophy of waiting until the spring market is outdated with the internet.  The difficulty with that thought process is if everyone else is doing the same then you are competing against numerous properties.  However, if you put it between now and February you have the opportunity to differentiate yourself online as well as the Realtor Community.  As Realtors we tour houses every Tuesday and Thursday, and if there are not a lot of broker open houses your house will be seen by a lot of Realtors which obviously helps in those realtors showing your house.  Currently, we have 455 properties on the market.  When you look at my blog from the end of September we had 656 properties, which is a 31 percent decrease in total inventory in the last couple of months.         Please let me know if you would like me to provide customized information or statistics for you based on your criteria. **The information on the featured property and all statistical information is from the Greenwich MLS. **All opinions garnered from the statistics are my own

Properties Sold    As mentioned above we outdid last year with 834 sold properties compared to 722 in 2012.  We outpaced last year in nine of the twelve months.   New Listings Not only did we outpace last year with sold properties, but we also did with new listings.  The positive here is that it was only a slight gain.  2012 we had 1,195 new listings, compared to 1,251 this year.  In my eyes this is promising as the percentage increase in sold properties outdoes the percentage increase in listings.    Year to Date Sold  If you read this blog you know I have been saying time and time again we have two different markets.  This graph speaks to it better than anything else.  86% of the properties sold last year were under $3M.    Year to Date Available     In an effort to define the different markets as a good time to buy or sale I believe one needs to look at the months on average it would take to sell through the inventory we have.  I have broken this down by June of 2012 (which is the high in my opinion) to January of 2013 (the low in my opinion) then will add each month as we come to them.    Price Range 6/12/13 1/5/13 2/1/13 2/22/13 3/22/13 4/26/13 5/31/13 6/28/13 7/26/13 8/30/13 9/30/13 10/31/13 11/30/13 12/31/13 0-$500K 6.36 4.96 5.76 5.28 5.12 4.95 5.76 5.76 6.24 5.11 5.28 6.08 4.96 4.48 $500K-$1M 7.98 3.88 4.22 4.22 4.72 5.11 5.5 5.55 5.5 5.16 5.33 5 3.72 3.33 $1M-$1.5M 11.48 7.22 7.34 7.1 7.22 8.2 9.3 8.81 7.95 7.59 7.95 6.97 5.38 4.67 $1.5M-$2M 10.86 7 8.55 9.06 8.68 9.44 9.19 8.8 8.5 7.53 7.27 6.25 6.12 5.61 $2M-$3M 15.27 8.64 9.72 10.2 9.96 12.24 13.8 12.6 12.12 11.76 13.08 11.64 9.12 7.56 $3M-$4M 21.82 12.4 13.77 16.22 17.55 20.88 22.66 22 20.22 20.22 22 19.77 16.22 14 $4M-$5M 37.33 17.5 16.5 18.5 21.5 27.5 28 27.5 23.5 21.99 24 24.5 18 16.5 $5M-$7.5M 30.92 19.4 20.47 20.47 20.82 23.64 25.76 26.82 26.47 24 26.11 24.7 23.29 20.82 $7.5M-$10M 57 25.84 22.15 22.15 25.84 26.76 31.38 33.2 32.3 25.84 26.76 27.69 26.79 24.92 $10M+ 40.21 36 36.85 40.28 38.57 36 38.57 36 31.71 29.14 39.42 40.28 39.42 25.89 **to calculate months on average in this chart I used the full year of 2012 sold properties in each price range   Look at the difference in the last month's numbers and how it has affected the overall market.  With so many people taking their homes off the market in the past month it has really affected the market.  The interesting aspect is that the luxury market has stayed consistent.  Yet, the other price ranges have dropped tremendously over the last month. Price Range 8/30/13 9/30/13 10/25/13 11/30/13 12/31/13 0-$500K 4.26 4.4 5.2 4.2 4 $500K-$1M 4.65 4.9 4.6 3.4 3.2 $1M-$1.5M 4.96 5.2 4.6 3.6 3 $1.5M-$2M 5.61 5.6 5.1 5 4.7 $2M-$3M 7.84 9.1 8.3 6.3 5.4 $3M-$4M 20.22 23.4 21.3 17.1 15.8 $4M-$5M 22 23.9 25.3 18.8 14.1 $5M-$7.5M 40.8 31.6 26.4 25 21.5 $7.5M-$10M 44.8 52.1 58.8 53.1 46.3 $10M+ 272 103.2 92.1 72.2 61.5 ** to calculate months on average in this chart I used year to date sold properties in each price range. Obviously the months on average were the lowest at the end of the year 2012.  The uncertainty of the fiscal cliff, as well as the election (most properties that closed in December were negotiated before election was finalized), and uncertainty of taxes.  Not to mention if people are going to take their house off of the market they will tend to do it over the holidays.   Open Houses January 5th      There are three open houses this weekend.  Stay warm. Address Area List Price Time Listing Office 67 Prospect Street Greenwich $1.295M 1-4 Lockwood  4 River Avenue Greenwich $2.5M 12-3 Raveis 240 Riverside Avenue Riverside $3.149M 12-2 Coldwell   Best,                                                                                                                                                         Jared Randall                                                 Join my Mailing List Houlihan Lawrence Greenwich                     Search Properties www.greenwichrealestateguy.com                Forward to a Friend cell:  203-273-1034                                         View My Website email:  jrandall@houlihanlawrence.com     Like me on Facebook            Mortgage Information There are two individuals I feel most confident about when it comes to home mortgages.  One in Manhattan and one in Greenwich.  They are Jeff Ihrig of First Republic in Manhatan, and in Greenwich I prefer Treena David-Chirico of Wells Fargo. Jeff can be reached at 646-372-5181.  Treena's phone number is 203-618-3923.  You can go to her website to input your specific information to receive rates.  Her website is www.wfhm.com/treena-david-chirico.