Greenwich, CT Residential Real Estate Analysis: July 27th

Greenwich, CT Residential Real Estate Analysis: July 27th A weekly analysis brought to you by Jared Randall. www.greenwichrealestateguy.com The beautiful home pictured above is 126 Parsonage.  I have discussed in previous weeks that I am a fan of this street.  It balances mid-country lot and home size with a proximity to town. This 5,546 s.f. home sits on 1.4 acres.  If you take a look at the link above, you will see the beautiful patio with the outdoor fireplace that opens onto a spacious deck.  It boasts 5 bedrooms and 4.5 baths.  The kitchen is pristine and open.  And also of note, there is a basement yet to be finished-so there's opportunity to add to the value and square footage.  As far as price, the property was listed for sale in February of 2011 for $4.975M and the price steadily dropped until it hit $4.325M in September of 2011, and subsequently was taken off of the market in February of 2012.  It just came back on two weeks ago with a different Listing Broker. It is listed at $4.25M which in my opinion is a good starting point for this property. As you will be see by looking below we may be seeing a trend of the more expensive markets starting to see some movement.  For a few weeks now, we have seen the higher end properties close.  This week continues the trend, as four of the nineteen properties sold were over $3M or 21%.  Year to date over $3M has only accounted for 16%.   This Sunday I will be doing an open house at 65 Lockwood Lane in Riverside. I believe this is a great value located in a cul de sac within walking distance to schools and train. This could be used as an investment property or a residence.  It has an updated kitchen, and backs up to Eastern Middle School field.  The owner's children could walk to school out of the backyard and never walk along a street. The highest compliment I can receive is the referral of someone you know who is looking to buy or sell their home. Call me with their name and number so I can give them the first class service they deserve.         Properties Sold   The I have mentioned that the spike in June of 2011's sold properties were due to a conveyance tax.  Hence, we need to look at June and July together, and possibly even August.  This week we passed last July's sold properties numbers.  We have sold 67 properties month to date where we had sold 61 last year.  Together for June and July we have sold 157 this year, with last year at 181 properties sold.  In the last week we had a strong week selling 18 properties.  My guess is when July ends and we look at June and July of 2011 vs. 2012 we will be about ten percent behind.  A more positive sign than what it was looking like just a week ago. New Listings     Month to date we have 62 new listings.  July of 2011 there were 61 new listings.  We will obviously outpace that with a few more days left in July.  However, the positive being that we have sold 7.5% more than the new listings month to date.  This is the first month we have seen that trend, it will be interesting to see if it holds.  September is usually when the market picks back up.  Not to mention with the new Affordable Health Care taxes I wonder if people will try to sell their house before the end of the year to save the 3.8% tax.    Year to Date Sold   I believe these two charts let us see the true current state of the market.  Most importantly, that each price range constitutes it's own market.  As one can see above 69% of the properties that have sold this year are under $2M.  Yet as you see below the properties priced under $2M only constitute 45% of the homes listed for sale.  This is even more drastic under $1M.  40% of the properties sold are under $1M but only 23% of the current available properties are under $1M.  Conversely, 17% of the properties sold are over $3M, yet is 40% of our current inventory.     Year to Date Available    In an effort to define the different markets as a good time to buy or sale I believe one needs to look at the months on average it would take to sell through the inventory we have. In the $0-$500K range we have 6.92 months on average to sell through. $500K-$1M  we have 7.35 months. $1M-$1.5M we have 10.64 months. $1.5M-$2M we have 9.45 months. $2M-$3M we have 14.1 months.  $3M-$4M we have 20.26 months. $4M-$5M we have 30 months. $5M-$7.5M we have 25.96 months. $7.5-$10M we have 45.69 months. $10M and above we have 47.47 months. One can see that under $2M the inventory would take anywhere from approximately 7 months to 9.45 months.  Yet, over $2M we are looking at 14 to 47.5 months. Open Houses July 29th       Once again, I will be at 65 Lockwood Lane again this week.  There is a house kitty corner at 68 Lockwood Road that has an open house as well.  So, if you see it come by and say hi.  Below are all of the Greenwich Open Houses. Enjoy your week. Address Town List Price Time Broker 1465 E Putnam Av #530 OG $405K 2-4 PM Coldwell 75 Cos Cob Ave #2 CC $429K 1-3 PM Higgins 1465 E Putnam Av #317 OG $459K 2-4 PM Greenwich Fine 9 River Rd #405 CC $469K 1-3 PM Raveis 11 Orchard St CC $599K 1-4 PM Prudential 60 Valley Rd #A CC $645K 2-4 PM Raveis 230 Valley Rd CC $685K 2-4 PM Raveis 51 Forest Ave #156 OG $695K 1-4 PM FF Realty 71 Orchard Pl #B GR $1.075M 1-3 PM Coldwell 25 Griffith Rd RV $1.149M 2-4 PM Raveis 12 Cherry Blossom Ln - Lot 3 GR $1.595M 2-4 PM Coldwell 8 Cherry Blossom Ln Lot 2 GR $1.595M 2-4 PM Coldwell 16 Norton Ln OG $1.595M 2-4 PM Raveis 21 Cat Rock Rd CC $1.649M 1-3 PM Coldwell 68 Lockwood Rd RV $1.729M 1-4 PM Prudential 65 Lockwood Ln RV $1.769M 1-4 PM Prudential 16 Manor Rd OG $1.795M 1-4 PM Prudential 7 Cherry Blossom Ln Lot 5 GR $1.995M 2-4 PM Coldwell 9 S End Ct OG $1.999M 2-5 PM Raveis 106 Porchuck Rd GR $2.199M 2-4 PM Coldwell 284 Riversville Rd GR $2.395M 1-3 PM Raveis 85 Dingletown Rd GR $2.45M 2-4 PM Ogilvy 17 Candlelight Pl GR $2.5M 1-3 PM Prudenital 75 Connecticut Av GR $2.649M 1-4 PM Raveis 30 Sherwood Ave GR $2.75M 1-3 PM Prudential 20 Stoney Ridge Ln RV $2.849M 2-4 PM Shore and Country 39 Shore Rd OG $2.895M 1-3 PM Real Living 1 Tyler Ln RV $3.19M 2-4 PM Weichert 530 North St GR $3.195M 1-4 PM Raveis 25 Windabout Dr GR $3.295M 2-4 PM Coldwell 38 Meadowbank Rd OG $3.3M 1-3 PM Raveis 36 Montgomery Ln GR $3.595M 2-4 PM Summit 3 Cherry Blossom Ln GR $4.99M 2-4 PM Coldwell 504 North St GR $6.85M 1-3 PM Coldwell   Mortgage Information The two individuals I feel most confident about when it comes to home mortgages are Jeff Ihrig of HSBC and Iliad Estrada or Ct. Home Mortgage. Jeff's rates can be found at:  http://www.us.hsbc.com/1/2/3/personal/home-loans  Jeff can be reached at 646-372-5181. Rates below courtesy of Iliad Estrada.  She can be reached at 203-637-6202.    CT Mortgage Rates Product Interest Rates Annual Percentage Rate 15 YR Fixed Conforming 2.625% 2.863% 30 YR Fixed Conforming 3.375% 3.514% 30 Year Fixed Agency  Jumbo n/a n/a 30 YR  Fixed Jumbo 3.990% 4.116% 5/1 YR ARM Conforming 2.250% 3.081% 5/1 YR ARM Jumbo 2.250% 3.060% 10/1 YR ARM Jumbo 3.375% 3.453%  *as of July 15th