Greenwich, CT Residential Real Estate Analysis: June 15th

Happy Father's Day to all of the Fathers.  I apologize for the delay in getting this out.  I have been working on setting up my new website as well as reconfiguring this newsletter.  Feel free to check out my website at www.greenwichrealestateguy.com.    The goal for this newsletter has always been to help educate buyers and sellers.  I felt that my previous newsletters were getting too wordy detailing the analysis.  Hence, I have decided to change the format and the statistics to make it more easy to follow.  One of the many incredible aspects of Greenwich is the diversity of Real Estate.  Greenwich has the in-town feel (where you can walk to the Avenue and town),Mid-Country, Back Country (where you can get plenty of land), Riverside and Old Greenwich (walk to schools, and beach), Cos Cob (close to everything), Glenville and Byram (borders New York, good values).  With the diversity of Real Estate, I feel the market ebbs and flows in different price points.  I decided that the best way to show where the market currently is and where it is headed is with four graphs; comparing properties sold monthly vs. the same month in 2010 and 2011, the amount of new listings per month compared to same month in 2010 and 2011, the year to date sold broken out by price point, then the properties available broken down by price point.     My belief is this is the easiest way to follow the market.  We will be able to see if the transactions are slowing or gaining on last year, while also being able to see which price points are growing market share and which are declining.     Please let me know which format you like better.  Also, if there is any information you would like added, or if you would like me to do a specific analysis for you do not hesitate to contact me.   Best,                                                                                                                                                         Jared

Properties Sold   As you can see above the first five months we are just off a little bit vs. last year's properties sold.  The 46 properties sold for June are as of June 15, so we are falling farther behind to try and reach the 120 of 2011.  Currently, we are trending more at June of 2010's pace where we were at 86 properties sold.  New Listings I feel this is the chart that most exemplifies where the market is currently.  If you compare this to the above properties sold graph, it shows the amount of inventory being added vs the amount being sold.  As you can see in the properties sold chart we are a couple of percentage points off of last year's properties sold.  However, looking at the new listings we can see that we are continually outnumbering the amount of new listings from last year and the year before.  Hence, proving we are adding supply with the demand staying constant. Year to Date Sold  This chart shows us the breakdown of the 256 properties sold year to date.  Of the 256 properties sold, 145 or 56.6% percent are between 0-$1.5M.  However, when you cross reference that with the chart below on where the inventory is you see a different story. Year to Date Available The above chart breaks down the available properties broken into the same price segments as the properties sold.  One can see the true disproportion in certain price points.  My opinion of these two charts are that even though we have more supply entering than the demand, the under $2M range has some legs to it.  There are 357 available properties in that segment, and we have sold 180 ytd. In essence, if no other properties came on the market under $2M and we had the same volume we have had ytd, it would take 12 months to sell through.  However, if we look at the $4M-$5M range we have had 8 properties sold ytd, and currently have 54 available properties.  That sale cycle would be approximately 36 months.  In summary, I feel the value in the current market is if one could jump price points.  The best place to be would be to sell in the under $2M range and buy over $2M.  Open Houses June 17    There are only three open houses with Sunday being Father's Day.  Enjoy the weekend.   Address Town Price Time Broker 49 S Water St #21 Greenwich $299K 1-3 PM Raveis 25 Old Church Rd Greenwich $1.2995M 1-3 PM Coldwell Bnkr 11 Club Rd Riverside $7.775M 1-4 PM Prudential    Mortgage Information   The two individuals I feel most confident about when it comes to home mortgages are Jeff Ihrig of HSBC and Iliad Estrada or Ct. Home Mortgage. Jeff's rates can be found at:  http://www.us.hsbc.com/1/2/3/personal/home-loans  Jeff can be reached at 646-372-5181. Rates below courtesy of Iliad Estrada.  She can be reached at 203-637-6202. CT Mortgage Rates Product Interest Rates Annual Percentage Rate 15 YR Fixed Conforming 2.750% 2.990% 30 YR Fixed Conforming 3.500% 3.640% 30 Year Fixed Agency  Jumbo n/a n/a 30 YR  Fixed Jumbo 3.990% 4.116% 5/1 YR ARM Conforming 2.500% 3.169% 5/1 YR ARM Jumbo 2.375% 3.104% 10/1 YR ARM Jumbo 3.375% 3.453%