jaredrandall - Greenwich Market Trends

Greenwich, CT Residential Real Estate Blog and Analysis:

October 24th

A weekly analysis brought to you by Greenwich Real Estate Guy.

www.greenwichrealestateguy.com

I would like to take a minute to thank everyone. We just ended the third quarter. There are over 1,120 Realtors in Greenwich and when counting my private sales I ranked 12th in gross volume for the third quarter. I truly appreciate everyone who takes the time to read and follow this blog as well as those of you who have used me and continue to tell your friends about me. Thank you. The charts are as of end of Q3, the open house list has been updated.

There are times as a Realtor where you walk into a home and you get a wow factor. Obviously, being a Realtor in Greenwich, this can happen quite often. The above pictured 47 Shore Road is one of these homes. This home has everything in my opinion. There is incredible outdoor space with a phenomenal patio including two outdoor fireplaces, a beautiful outdoor kitchen, culminating in the perfect entertainment spot. The main home has six bedrooms, with four full baths. The home is set up with a smart home system so you can have the lights and a/v controlled by iPads. The kitchen is immaculate and opens perfectly into the family room with fireplace. There is a two bedroom cottage on the property as well perfect to rent out or have guests from out of town. The house boasts a fantastic lower level equipped with a gym, bedroom, bath and a playroom. All encompassing there are 5,712 s.f. 8 bedrooms, 6 and one half baths and three fireplaces. The house went up for rent three days ago, and on the first day received three offers. However, the house is also for sale and is offered at $4.75M.

All charts and numbers have been updated. I have also included a link to the 3rd Quarter Market Report my firm puts out for your review.

3rd Quarter Market Report

As We currently have 699 properties available in Greenwich down from 714 a couple of weeks ago. The numbers for September were very positive. We had 59 properties sell vs 47 last year in the month of September. Percentage wise the strongest month we have had since the first quarter.

I have invested in my own MLS Search for my readers. This will give access to a lot of the listing information I have. Also, if I have already set you up with your personal portal, you will now be able to search your own searches outside of what I set up for you. Feel free to test out and search properties. I feel the best attribute is that you can save your own search and choose to get alerts as new properties come on to the market, properties are sold, or change in price. All specific to your customized search. Hence, you will speed up your learning curve, becoming an expert in the specific market you care about.

Please let me know if you would like me to provide customized information or statistics for you based on your criteria.

**The information on the featured property and all statistical information is from the Greenwich MLS.

**All opinions garnered from the statistics are my own

Properties Sold

As you can see from above a great September for us. The first month since January where we have double digit percentage growth in amount of transactions over last year.

New Listings

We had 157 new listings in September very comparable to last year's 160.

Year to Date Sold

The percentages have leveled off and are sustaining, all percentages are the same vs. the end of last month.

Year to Date Available

In an effort to define the different markets as a good time to buy or sale I believe one needs to look at the months on average it would take to sell through the inventory we have. This one below is the amount of months on average to sell through our current inventory based on 2014 ytd sold numbers by price range.

Price Range	1/31/14	2/28/14	3/28/14	4/25/14	5/16/14	7/31/14
0-$500K	10.2	6.0	7.0	6.1	5.5	5.6
$500K-$1M	9.7	8.6	9.0	8.7	8.6	5.2
$1M-$1.5M	5.5	9.5	8.9	10.3	7.8	6.4
$1.5M-$2M	8	14.5	13.6	18.4	17.8	11
$2M-$3M	4.7	9.2	11.6	14.3	14.2	11.1
$3M-$4M	11	13.1	11.8	14.2	14.5	10.4
$4M-$5M	11.9	8.9	13.1	14.4	22.1	17.7
$5M-$7.5M	20.7	32.0	39.5	59	56.6	32
$7.5M-$10M	n/a	n/a	71.5	51	31.5	59.5
$10M+	22.4	27.2	42.0	22.7	33.8	29.9

I believe these chart above and below best show the Greenwich market. If you look at the months on average to sell through the inventory I believe it best shows the market. I have done two reports, one based on last year's activity and one based on this year's activity. You will see that across the board the months on average are down year to date, which may seem counter intuitive if I am saying that the transactions are down. However, the end of July is typical when the least amount of inventory is out there, due to being past the spring market and before the fall market. Hence, when you compare it to the chart with the 2013 activity you see that the months on average are higher.

The chart below is the amount of months on average to sell throughcurrent inventory based on all of 2013 sold numbers by price range.

Price Range	8/30/13	9/30/13	10/25/13	11/30/13	12/30/13	1/31/14	2/28/14	3/28/14	4/25/14	5/16/14	7/31/14
0-$500K	4.26	4.4	5.2	4.2	4	4.2	4	3.8	3.7	4	4.1
$500K-$1M	4.65	4.9	4.6	3.4	3.2	3	3.8	4.4	5.2	5.4	4.7
$1M-$1.5M	4.96	5.2	4.6	3.6	3	3.5	4	4.1	5.6	5.4	5.8
$1.5M-$2M	5.61	5.6	5.1	5	4.7	5	6.4	6.1	7.2	7.1	8.7
$2M-$3M	7.84	9.1	8.3	6.3	5.4	5.9	6.9	8	9.1	10.3	9.7
$3M-$4M	20.22	23.4	21.3	17.1	15.8	16.3	15.3	16.5	19.8	18.5	19.8
$4M-$5M	22	23.9	25.3	18.8	14.1	15	13.7	13.7	18	21	22.7
$5M-$7.5M	40.8	31.6	26.4	25	21.5	22.2	24	25.1	28.4	32	26.5
$7.5M-$10M	44.8	52.1	58.8	53.1	46.3	46.3	46.3	42.9	46.3	48	58.3
$10M+	272	103.2	92.1	72.2	61.5	66	63	66	54	67.5	70.5

I find these two charts to be very intriguing. One can see the huge discrepancy based on the 2013 numbers between the luxury market and under $3M. However, at the top if we use the inventory based on the ytd sold numbers it is not as definitive. The luxury market is doing much better than last year and each market seems to be doing relatively well.

Open Houses for October 26th

Below are the 55 open houses this weekend.

Street Name	Area	List Price	Time	Listing Office
4 Waterfall Lane	Cos Cob	$3.75K	2-4 p.m.	Raveis
12 Lockwood Drive	Old Greenwich	$5.45K	1-4 p.m.	Weichert
20 Carleton Street	Greenwich	$8K	1-4 p.m.	Raveis
92 Wesskum Wood	Old Greenwich	$10K	1-3 p.m.	Sotheby's
95 Connecticut Avenue	Greenwich	$16K	2:30-4:30	Coldwell Banker
9 River Road #409	Cos Cob	$429K	1-3 p.m.	Sotheby's
25 W Elm Street #26	Greenwich	$575K	1-3 p.m.	Raveis
13 Fletcher Avenue	Greenwich	$650K	1-4 p.m.	Weichert
100 Strickland Road #8	Cos Cob	$670K	2-4 p.m.	Raveis
47 Lafayette Place #4E	Greenwich	$715K	1-3 p.m.	Sotheby's
8 Relay Court	Cos Cob	$819K	2-4 p.m.	Coldwell Banker
69 Riverdale Avenue #205	Greenwich	$849K	1-3 p.m.	Sotheby's
7 Sickle Bar Lane	Riverside	$999K	1-3 p.m.	Shore and Country
1 Ridge Road	Cos Cob	$1.099M	2-4 p.m.	Shore and Country
13 Center Drive	Old Greenwich	$1.195M	1-3 p.m.	Sotheby's
210 Lyon Farm	Greenwich	1.224M	12-2 p.m.	Raveis
12 Lockwood Drive	Old Greenwich	$1.295M	1-4 p.m.	Weichert
36 Sherwood Avenue	Greenwich	$1.295M	2:30-4:30 p.m.	Raveis
14 Surrey Drive	Riverside	$1.299M	12-2 p.m.	Raveis
51 Glen Road	Greenwich	$1.395M	1-4 p.m.	BHHS
142 Sound Beach	Old Greenwich	$1.699M	1-3 p.m.	Sotheby's
143 Weaver Street	Greenwich	$1.7M	1-4 p.m.	BHHS
233 Milbank #8	Greenwich	$1.795M	2-4 p.m.	Houlihan Lawrence
39 Bowman Drive	Greenwich	$1.85M	1-4 p.m.	Raveis
14 Palmer Terrace	Riverside	$1.85M	2-4 p.m.	Raveis
7 North Street	Greenwich	$2.195M	1-3 p.m.	Sotheby's
270 Palmer Hill Road	Riverside	$2.25M	1-3 p.m.	Raveis
88 Dingletown Road	Greenwich	$2.395M	1-4 p.m.	William Pitt Sotheby's
69 Mallard Drive	Greenwich	$2.45M	12-3 p.m.	Sotheby's
6 Kenilworth Terrace	Greenwich	$2.495M	2-4 p.m.	Coldwell Banker
180 Stanwich Road	Greenwich	$2.6M	1-4 p.m.	BHHS
6 Dingletown Road	Greenwich	$2.625M	1-3 p.m.	Houlihan Lawrence
268 Palmer Hill Road	Riverside	$2.75M	1-3 p.m.	Raveis
420 North Street	Greenwich	$2.795M	1-4 p.m.	Sotheby's
17 Pintail Lane	Greenwich	$2.795M	1-3 p.m.	Sotheby's
184 Stanwich Road	Greenwich	$2.95M	1-4 p.m.	BHHS
900 Lake Avenue	Greenwich	$2.995M	2-4 p.m.	Raveis
7 Gisborne Place	Old Greenwich	$2.995M	1-4 p.m.	Coldwell Banker
41 Tomac Avenue	Old Greenwich	$2.995M	1-3 p.m.	BHHS
50 Indian Head	Riverside	$3.1995M	1-3 p.m.	Coldwell Banker
150 Riverside Avenue	Riverside	$3.495M	2-4 p.m.	Sotheby's
520 Cognewaugh Road	Cos Cob	$3.495M	1-3 p.m.	Shore and Country
5 Grimes Road	Old Greenwich	$3.595M	2-4 p.m.	Coldwell Banker
12 E Point Lane	Old Greenwich	$3.6M	1-3 p.m.	Raveis
33 Normandy Lane	Riverside	$3.65M	1-3 p.m.	BHHS
20 Carpenters Brook	Greenwich	$3.8M	1-4 p.m.	Coldwell Banker
14 Sherwood Farm	Greenwich	$3.995M	2-4 p.m.	Halstead
10 Esther Place	Old Greenwich	$4.295M	2-4 p.m.	Shore and Country
36 DAY ROAD	Greenwich	$4.495M	1-3 p.m.	Coldwell Banker
19 Shoal Point	Riverside	$4.5M	1-4 p.m.	Coldwell Banker
30 Vineyard Lane	Greenwich	$4.85M	1-3 p.m.	Coldwell Banker
14 Golf Club Road	Greenwich	$6.85M	12-2 p.m.	Coldwell Banker
12 BYFIELD LANE	Greenwich	$7.499M	1-4 p.m.	BHHS
21 Topping & 22 Close	Greenwich	$15.95M	1-3 p.m.	Sotheby's

Best,

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Mortgage Information

There are two individuals I feel most confident about when it comes to home mortgages. One in Manhattan and one in Greenwich. They are Jeff Ihrig of First Republic in Manhattan, and in Greenwich I prefer Treena David-Chirico of Wells Fargo NMLSR ID 404288.

Jeff can be reached at 646-372-5181. Treena's phone number is 203-618-3923. You can go to her website to input your specific information to receive rates. Her website is www.wfhm.com/treena-david-chirico.