Greenwich CT, Residential Real Estate Analysis and Blog: January 18th
Sunday, January 20, 2013 at 1:40PM
Jared Randall
Greenwich, CT Residential Real Estate Analysis: January 18th
A weekly analysis brought to you by Greenwich Real Estate Guy.
33 Ballwood 
 

The above beautiful colonial is located at 33 Ballwood Road in Old Greenwich.  Although this house may not stand out as much from the outside, the inside has everything.  The top floor is an old style bar with movie theatre seating.  The basement comes equipped with a walk in wine cellar, an exercise room, family room, sauna and full bath.  The house is listed at 4,268 s.f. but feels almost like twice as much.  Every foot is useable.  It has five bedrooms, with five and one half baths.  There are water views as it is south of the village, and has deeded access to the Sound.  The house just came on the market on January 16th with an asking price of $4.195M. 

I had mentioned last week that the inventory in the last six months of the year dropped 40%.  I expected to see the inventory explode in the beginning of this year.  So, far in the last week, we have already seen an uptick.  So far this month we have had 71 new properties, 44 of which have come on the market in the last month.  In 2011 we had 75 for the month of January and in 2012 89 new properties were listed.  We are on track to beat those numbers, but we are still low in inventory as you can see by the chart I showed last week:

Price Range Months on Avg 06/12 Months on Avg 01/05/12
0-$500K 6.36 4.96
$500K-$1M 7.98 3.88
$1M-$1.5M 11.48 7.22
$1.5M-$2M 10.86 7
$2M-$3M 15.27 8.64
$3M-$4M 21.82 12.4
$4M-$5M 37.33 17.5
$5M-$7.5M 30.92 19.4
$7.5M-$10M 57 25.84
$10M+ 40.21 36
I have updated the charts with the month to date numbers.  The pie chart of the Available Properties is as of 01/18.  The pie chart with the ytd sales, is updated to only show the 28 properties that have sold so far this year.  Hence, that chart's percentages will change from week to week until we get more data.  The month on average to sell through, I will be using the full year rates of closed properties for 2012 as I feel that will give us the most consistent numbers.
 
While I still believe that we are not completely over the hump in Greenwich, especially in the higher price ranges, I do feel there is a temporary time frame where sellers can get a premium on their properties because the inventory is so low.  I also believe come March we will see a huge influx of inventory, which will soften the market, and create opportunities to buy. 
 
My personal opinion is that the best way to understand where the market is to analyze it from a price range standpoint.  Then, to be able to see the amount of inventory versus the amount of properties sold in each price range gives us the best sense of the market.  Scroll down to see these broken down as months on average it would take to sell through the current inventory.  Due to the fact that most of my charts are based on month end and year to date data I have left the charts the same so you can view 2012 as a year for the first few weeks of this year before updating till 2013 to give us more time to get more transactions.  You can compare the current weeks numbers against the numbers from previous newslettersat www.greenwichrealestateguy.com/blog

 

As always, if you have a house in mind you would like to see, please do not hesitate to call me.   

I would like to thank Mark Pruner for mentioning me in the Greenwich Patch.  Mark also does his own synopsis of the Greenwich Market at www.greenwichstreets.com.  I have updated the mortgage information on the bottom of the newsletter as well.

Please let me know if you would like me to provide customized information or statistics for you based on your criteria.

**The information on the featured property and all statistical information is from the Greenwich MLS.

 **All opinions garnered from the statistics are my own

 

 

Properties Sold

sold 0118 

As mentioned and seen above, there was tremendous activity in December.  We sold 89 this past December vs. 40 the year before.  We discussed in the first section that we were seeing a high number of new inventory come on, the positive is we are also following it up with a good January in regards to sold properties.

 

New Listings
newlistings0118
As you see in the chart above through the first few weeks of January you already see the inventory is outpacing the past few years.

 

  
Year to Date Soldytdsold011803

 

I was pleasantly surprised that even though we have only sold 28 properties ytd, the percentages were not completely off from the end of the year.  The $500K-$1M grew to 42% and we have not had a property sell over the $7.5M range, yet but the other ranges stayed relatively similar.

 

 

Year to Date Available
currentavailable011803  

 

We saw the inventory grow this month as so far we have had 71 new properties compared to 28 sold properties, but for the most part we are trending in a positive manner.  We may outpace the sold numbers from the last couple of years, which in my opinion would bode very well with December being so busy.  

 In an effort to define the different markets as a good time to buy or sale I believe one needs to look at the months on average it would take to sell through the inventory we have.  

Price Range MOA 01/05 MOA 01/12
0-$500K 4.96 5.76
$500K-$1M 3.88 3.94
$1M-$1.5M 7.22 7.59
$1.5M-$2M 7 8.04
$2M-$3M 8.64 9.48
$3M-$4M 12.4 13.77
$4M-$5M 17.5 17.5
$5M-$7.5M 19.4 19.76
$7.5M-$10M 25.84 22.15
$10M+ 36 36.85

 **to calculate months on average I used the full year of 2012 sold properties in each price range

Obviously the months on average were the lowest at the end of the year.  The uncertainty of the fiscal cliff, as well as the election (most properties that closed in December were negotiated before election was finalized), and uncertainty of taxes.  Not to mention if people are going to take their house off of the market they will tend to do it over the holidays.
Open Houses January 20th
  
 

Below are all of the Greenwich Open Houses for Sunday.  Click on the link it will take you to the listing.  21 Mallard is listed twice as the first is the rental listing and the second is the for sale listing. 

Address Town List Price Time Broker
21 Mallard Drive Greenwich $5K 12-4 PM Coldwell Bnkr
21 Byram Road Greenwich $399K 1-3 PM Marr & Caruso
16 Morgan Avenue Greenwich $475K 1-4 PM Prudential
73 Weaver Street #23 Greenwich $899K 2-4 PM Coldwell Bnkr
21 Mallard Drive Greenwich $1.095M 12-4 PM Coldwell Bnkr
32 Ferncliff Road Cos Cob $1.195M 1-4 PM Prudential
31 Westview Place Riverside $1.3M 1:30-3:30 PM Coldwell Bnkr
3 Fairfield Avenue Old Greenwich $1.599M 1-3 PM Raveis
191 North Street Greenwich $1.95M 1:30-3:30 PM Coldwell Bnkr
6 Ledge Road Old Greenwich $3.35M 1-3 PM Coldwell Bnkr
78 Doubling Road Greenwich $6.1M 1-4 PM Sotheby's

 

Mortgage Information

 

The two individuals I feel most confident about when it comes to home mortgages are Jeff Ihrig of First Republic in the city and Iliad Estrada of Connecticut Home Mortgage.

Jeff can be reached at 646-372-5181.

Rates below courtesy of Iliad Estrada.  She can be reached at 203-637-6202.

CT Mortgage Rates

Product

Interest Rates

Annual Percentage Rate

15 YR Fixed Conforming

2.375%

2.608%

30 YR Fixed Conforming

3.100%

3.235%

30 Year Fixed Agency  Jumbo

n/a

n/a

30 YR  Fixed Jumbo

3.500%

3.619%

5/1 YR ARM Conforming

2.100%

2.892%

5/1 YR ARM Jumbo

2.125%

2.880%

10/1 YR ARM Jumbo

2.875%

3.062%

 


Updated: December 14th

 
Article originally appeared on jaredrandall (http://www.greenwichrealestateguy.com/).
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